Comments on: The Day In Israel: Monday Jan 11th, 2010

By: mzk1

mzk1 — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 20:27:47 +0000

Missed a word – always. They don't always give the MOE here, while they always give it in the U.S. I was pretty surprised, this was a poll (a while back), several pages with charts and analyses and all, and no MOE. And as I said, the answers contradicted.
Thank you for the analysis, BTW.

By: juvanya

juvanya — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 19:52:33 +0000

Nah they gave it at the bottom 4.5. Also, 500 respondents is about 4.5 anyway.

We can see contradictory polling over the public option in the US where support ranges from 30 to 70%.

By: Michael Zvi Krumbein

Michael Zvi Krumbein — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 08:40:56 +0000

MOE. Sorry, in programming we are always thinking LOE (level of effort).

By: juvanya

juvanya — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 08:20:14 +0000

Now that I think about it, there are some problems with this poll. I had forgotten my statistics education. The margin of error overall was 4.5%, which is not that bad, but about at the tail end of what you want. (1000 or so respondents would get you down to about 3.1%)

The problem, however rises with the subgroups. Let's say a group had only 50 respondents in the poll (10%), that would give a MOE of nearly 14%. Let's take Yisrael Beiteinu, which got 11.7%. Their 36% in favor of a ban could actually be as high as 50% in reality.

The good thing is that the total result is safely over the MOE. The subgroups probably are within a "safe" range as well. But without the numbers of respondents in each subgroup, I can only guess based on elections and census data.

Of course the problem in Israel is that it's expensive to poll and not many groups are willing to pay for it compared to the US. However, for such a poll they could have done better to hit 1000. On the other hand, it is perfectly adequate.

It's always important to look behind the statistics and understand why the numbers are what they are: something few people appreciate.

By: Michael Zvi Krumbein

Michael Zvi Krumbein — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 06:55:39 +0000

I'm afraid I did not state what I said clearly. The moderate secularists were among the most opposed to keeping the minarets (I guess they meant the recorded call to prayer), while the extreme secularists were among the most in favor of keeping them.

Of course pro-enemy PC affects us. Some of the worst anti-Israel propoganda comes out of Israel, including boycott requests. There is a weekly column in HaAretz that reads like it comes from Hamas. And look at all of the damage the B'tzelem does.

BTW, when I was in Turkey, I thought I could use the call to see when sunset was. (After all, Maimonidies uses it.) However, when I checked the internet (A little haggling with the owner) and checked http://www.myzmanim.com, I found that either the call had the wrong time, or I misunderstood the relation between the call and sunset.

By: Michael Zvi Krumbein

Michael Zvi Krumbein — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 06:40:19 +0000

Also, unfortunately, they don't even give the LOE here. Also, the answers to a poll often depend on how the questions are asked. One poll I saw here had two questions whose results contradicted each other.

By: juvanya

juvanya — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 01:36:20 +0000

Yeah I found that interesting that the conservative secularists are the most opposed. Shows how much the Arab propaganda affects even us.

By: Michael Zvi Krumbein

Michael Zvi Krumbein — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 18:34:37 +0000

You know, I have to take that back partly. I see that voters for the anti-religious coalition are about even with my party. So the "moderate" secularists are among those most opposed? Interesting.

By: Michael Zvi Krumbein

Michael Zvi Krumbein — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 18:31:00 +0000

I note that the Reform movement has been engaged in a war of destruction against the Chareidim (including two recent court decisions, which indirectly hurt the Dati Leumi and the Arabs) on the grounds that "they do not teach egalitarian values". (Actually, they just teach Judaism.) According this poll, they are more dedicated to egalitarian values than the secularists, at least when it comes to freedom of religion. The best guarantee of religious freedom is when the other guy knows they will come for him next. People who feel that "all truths are equal" will in the end come after those who do not.

Also note that the greatest defender of Moslem rights is the settler party. The least pro-Moslem are the traditional, mainly consistling of those whose parents tasted the "joys" of living under Islam.