Israellycool

..or is it more a commentary on Bibi’s new approach?

Now this is interesting.

With elections looming in problematic Israel, the race seems to be down to right-wing leader Benjamin Netanyahu and center party candidate Zipi Livni. Surprisingly, many Arabs favor a win by the seemingly more hawkish Netanyahu.

The considered opinion of political and business leaders in the region is that Netanyahu offers stability and the possibility of peace, while the inexperienced Livni brings a likelihood of volatility and crisis.

An Egyptian-trained economist pointed out the differences between the two Israeli candidates: “Netanyahu is an experienced politician who has the highest likelihood of bringing a stable government to Israel. A stable Israel means a stable region, and right now this is very important; the coming years are a crucial time for many Arab countries to develop their economies, and an unstable Israel makes that unlikely. Netanyahu’s agenda is centered on economic growth as his top priority, so he needs quiet and stability as much as everyone else, and maybe more.”

“Livni, the centrist Kadima party candidate, has an unclear agenda at this stage. Although her outlook is assumed to be less hawkish then Netanyahu, there is a strong feeling that her inexperience will lead to increased risk of conflict. She is unlikely to enjoy a firm power base in Israel, and this, combined with her inexperience in foreign and security affairs, means that her handling of crisis will likely escalate situations. Moreover, such a weak leader is too much of an opportunity for groups such as Hamas and Hizbullah to ignore, so crisis situations seem sure to turn up.”

Surprisingly, Netanyahu’s appeal to the Arab moderates is also based on a higher possibility for peace, the Egyptian scholar explained: “When you look at actions instead of rhetoric, the only Israeli leaders who have actually made land concessions to the Palestinians and the Arab states have been the right wing Israeli prime ministers - Menahim Begin withdrew from occupied Sinai, and Arial Sharon vacated the Israeli settlements in the Gaza strip. In both cases they used their own army to forcefully evict the Israeli settlers from the occupied lands. Israel’s right wing leaders are obstinate but they understand reality, and they have the authority to impose peace agreements on their public. A weak leader like Livni will not be able to push through any potential deal with the Palestinians or with Syria.”

Peering south along the Mediterranean coast towards Tel Aviv, residents of Beirut also ponder which of the leading candidates for the leadership of Israel offers the best prospects to Lebanon. Much of the city’s business community favors opposition leader Netanyahu over government minister Livni.

A trader in the Beirut stock exchange explained it simply: “When the wolves smell weakness they attack, but we have seen these attacks, no matter how successful, always involve an Israeli retribution. Sadly, when this happens it is Lebanon’s economy that pays the heavy price for adventure. We are just getting back to being a success after the summer of 2006 nearly wrecked us. We need a few years of quiet now, not a renewal of fighting. Livni is weak and inexperienced, and this is too much for our wolves to resist. Netanyahu is not nice, but he is strong, not a pushover. I believe that he is our best chance for quiet.”

A shopkeeper in the city center also had a similar opinion. Smiling at the Saudi tourists filling his shop, he asserted that Netanyahu makes a far less tempting target than Livni. Noting his interest in maintaining peace and quiet in Lebanon, he said that “The problem is that we have some people that just look for an opportunity to make trouble. The best way to avoid this is simply not to give them the opportunity”.

The political analysis in the Hizbullah-dominated neighborhoods of Beirut seems to be the same, but with opposite conclusions. When questioned about their opinions, several young men there noted that the election of Livni will open a window of opportunity to make further advances against the Jewish state, noting the fighting in 2006 as a significant victory.

But not everyone was bent on direct action. One man said that even if the resistance movements do nothing, a Livni-lead government would weaken Israel and hasten “the day of their collapse”, adding “We should only take action when our leaders decide it is in our interest.”

Clearly, Israeli MPs Ehud Barak and Binyamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu look nothing alike.

Most of the time.

Today there was a first in Israeli politics - the first time an Israeli politician has invited bloggers to cover a press conference.

The politician in question was Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, and the bloggers attending were Rafi G, Carl in Jerusalem, Lurker, RivkA, and Mother in Israel.

You can read about the press conference on their blogs. My main point in mentioning this is to say it is great to see an Israeli politician see the potential in blogs, albeit for a political campaign.

A preferable approach would be to recognize the great value of blogs to Israel’s public relations. One question I asked Bibi at the recent bloggers’ conference was whether he monitors the blogs and comments for “the talking points that hit home.” Implicit in my question was my belief that the Israeli government could learn a lot by paying close attention to the conversations in the blogosphere regarding the Middle East conflict, and learn from them, rather than suggest to the bloggers what they should be writing (the current approach).

I hope today’s press conference leads to a greater recognition of blogs by the Israeli government.

And in case you were wondering, yes I was invited to cover the press conference, but I decided to decline, given it was held in the middle of the morning. Hey, I still have a day job, you know.