Breaking through Israel’s equivalent of the Maginot line could have been a windfall for Hamas had it shown any restraint. Instead, it waged a bloody pogrom against civilians which went beyond criminality into war crimes.
Israel originally pulled out of its Gazan territories as a goodwill gesture, an opportunity for economic development, to save itself defense costs. Instead, Israel (and Egypt) have had to contain Hamas.
Containment made sense as long as violence stemming from Hamas was limited. Israel instituted the “mow the lawn” strategy of being prepared to degrade Gaza’s fighting capacity during flare-ups of terrorism. It’s fair to point out Hamas’ growing capabilities from conflict to conflict. Leaders had to know a more dangerous fight was becoming inevitable. Hezbollah developed know-how from oppressing people in Syria, know-how they shared with Hamas. Now, the economic and human cost of not going to war is greater than the cost of going.
Scuttling the talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia was the mission, likely on Tehran’s orders but the division it was seeking has likely backfired. The UAE and Morocco have condemned the massacre and Saudi Arabia has not reflexively blamed Israel as it used to, though it made a generalized statement of support for the Palestinians. These talks are probably delayed but in the halls of Riyadh, there must be fears about Iranian proxies being left to fester; the Houthis could become as effective as Hamas has been. Tehran and Gaza have incentivized Riyadh and Jerusalem to become closer, it remains to be seen if they will. Hamas overplayed their hand. Iran will now lose its second most useful proxy force if Israel finally replants the lawn and it may well have set up the loss of Hezbollah, Tehran’s premier terror group, too.
There will be time for lessons learned and I hope there are, but this Iranian-sponsored massacre should remind everyone the Mullahs in Iran have pretty much developed a nuke and a longer-range missile that can carry it is not far behind.
